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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/29/2008 4:04:49 PM
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GroupW
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quote:
ORIGINAL: bzirk
So what do you think of the proposals such as Newt Gingrich have made? Changing the accounting, giving loans instead of buying securities, making the banks buy insurance, etc.
The concept of banks buying insurance was included in the defeated bill (section 102 if I recall correctly.) Also the Treasury and SEC were required under the bill to examine the accounting issues at stake and recommend alternatives, particularly mark-to-market accounting. Even the idea of giving loans was addressed in a backhanded sort of way, though not to the extent that some would have liked to have seen. As near as I can tell, most of the substantial objections to the bill were addressed in the final draft.
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/29/2008 4:06:47 PM
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GroupW
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quote:
ORIGINAL: GregandJenny
I agree that people don't have a concept of economics.
However representatives are supposed to do what their people want because they represent them. They aren't supposed to do "what's right" they are supposed to do what the people want. In fact I would say that in this game their jobs depend on it.
I'll bet I can provide you a scenario which would make you reject this argument.
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“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/29/2008 4:09:13 PM
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GregandJenny
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quote:
se they represent them. They aren't supposed to do "what's right" they are supposed to do what the
I would love to hear it.
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/29/2008 4:10:26 PM
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bzirk
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I haven't seen the final bill, but at this point people appear to be so up in arms that probably nothing would have passed. Obviously I understand the anger, since I am very angry as well. But much as I hate for the fat cats on Wall Street who ran us into this mess to get off, I recognize we need to have some relief passed. To let the chips fall where they may would be a Pyrrhic victory indeed.
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/29/2008 4:17:08 PM
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csl7037
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Has anyone seen who actually voted no? I can't find it anywhere.
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/29/2008 4:20:40 PM
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GregandJenny
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I will look for a link. I was watching C Span when they voted but they didn't say who. I imagine if you want to see who voted how go to your local news station.
G
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/29/2008 4:22:00 PM
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GroupW
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quote:
ORIGINAL: bzirk
To let the chips fall where they may would be a Pyrrhic victory indeed.
The sheer number of people who fail to grasp this fact is amazing to me. I understand that the average American doesn't really have a great grasp of economics. But please! Members of congress should.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/29/2008 4:32:07 PM
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tracydolls
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quote:
The sheer number of people who fail to grasp this fact is amazing to me. I understand that the average American doesn't really have a great grasp of economics. But please! Members of congress should.
Is PERA funds affected by this? GW
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Rev 3:17 Because thou sayest, I am rich, and increased with goods, and have need of nothing; and knowest not that thou art wretched, and miserable, and poor, and blind, and naked:
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/30/2008 3:39:52 AM
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47.samuel
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quote:
ORIGINAL: ravishingshloka
The best test of whether the government's $700 billion check will be enough to save the U.S. economy is how much of that money flows back to consumers and companies . Even if the government gets Congressional approval this week to buy bad debts off banks' books, satisfying some of their cash needs, the financial sector will still need to raise money -- and investors haven't exactly been lining up to help. Unless banks can find funding somewhere, they won't be eager to resume lending, and that will leave the economy sputtering. What is your take on this?
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American Christians should take a long, hard look at the current situation in the US and decide whether they want to continue supporting a society where ultimately success is based on greed and lust for power.
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/30/2008 1:00:02 PM
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HighPlainsDrifter
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quote:
The sheer number of people who fail to grasp this fact is amazing to me. I understand that the average American doesn't really have a great grasp of economics. But please! Members of congress should.
Please. If they did, we wouldn't be 9+ trillion in hock, would we.
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/30/2008 1:36:18 PM
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GroupW
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quote:
ORIGINAL: HighPlainsDrifter
quote:
The sheer number of people who fail to grasp this fact is amazing to me. I understand that the average American doesn't really have a great grasp of economics. But please! Members of congress should.
Please. If they did, we wouldn't be 9+ trillion in hock, would we.
Good point.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/30/2008 1:41:40 PM
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GroupW
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quote:
ORIGINAL: tracydolls
quote:
The sheer number of people who fail to grasp this fact is amazing to me. I understand that the average American doesn't really have a great grasp of economics. But please! Members of congress should.
Is PERA funds affected by this? GW
I assume you mean Public Employees Retirement Assn. in your particular state.
Affected? Sure - everytime markets go down, pension funds etc are affected. Should you worry about it? Probably not, unless your particular pension fund made some serious misallocations. Pension funds project out their liabilities (promises to retirees) and their assets (investments) over the long run, so short term swings only impact pension funds to the extent that it throws their long run assumptions out of whack.
Really, though, the answer to your question depends on which particular pension fund we're talking about.
At some point, you and your employer may have to increase the amount of pension contributions, but it's really too early to tell.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/30/2008 10:12:32 PM
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AdrianaS
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The vote will start all over again tomorrow ..Senate will vote it first before goes to the House..hmmm...
I am reading Brasilian news..don't know if this a false alarm..
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/30/2008 10:39:45 PM
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mapachito13
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quote:
ORIGINAL: csl7037
Is there anything in the bailout to tighten up requirements for loaning the money? We can't just keep loaning to risky people, that'll just exacerbate the problem. I think there's got to be a reality check here for consumers. If we're all just equally saddled with this enormous bill down the road, no one is going to learn anything or realize how their irresponsibility and personal greed contributed to this. Will credit continue to be absurdly easy to get or will some common sense return to this system? If people suddenly can't keep upping their limit (like Congress) and they have to face the reality that the things we want do have to be paid for, maybe we'll collectively learn something from this. If the bailout is designed to keep people from feeling any real "pain" from their stupidity, it's just a temporary fix and, I fear, very temporary.
The US government is becoming a fiscally irresponsible loan applicant as well. The ratio of our debt to our GDP stands at 64% roughly two-thirds!
I wonder if the government could get a loan nowadays from those very banks that they are trying to bail out after showing their balance sheet!
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 10/1/2008 12:47:35 PM
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_jjp_
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What is intresting is that yesterday, after the defeat of the bailout was announced, the stock market began to recover from the previous day's losses, the dollar became more valuable, and the price of oil went down. Now the bailout proponents wanted us to believe that without immediate action the economy would spiral into nothingness. Chicken little anyone?
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 10/1/2008 12:53:30 PM
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GroupW
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quote:
ORIGINAL: _jjp_
What is intresting is that yesterday, after the defeat of the bailout was announced, the stock market began to recover from the previous day's losses, the dollar became more valuable, and the price of oil went down. Now the bailout proponents wanted us to believe that without immediate action the economy would spiral into nothingness. Chicken little anyone?
Of course, after an 800 point drop we would expect a modest bounce upward from a big down day anyway. The dollar became more valuable since US interest rates on the unwind of Monday's flight to quality. The price of oil went down due to a number of factors including an increased chance of recession here in the US and the resulting decline in predicted demand.
Bottom line is that you can't really use day-to-day swings in the fickle markets to either justify or refute a proposed policy. People on both sides of the debate have tried to do that and I think it's unjustified. At best, it's an indication of public opinion on an issue and a very volatile and fickle one at that.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 10/1/2008 1:01:24 PM
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_jjp_
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quote:
ORIGINAL: GroupW
quote:
ORIGINAL: _jjp_
What is intresting is that yesterday, after the defeat of the bailout was announced, the stock market began to recover from the previous day's losses, the dollar became more valuable, and the price of oil went down. Now the bailout proponents wanted us to believe that without immediate action the economy would spiral into nothingness. Chicken little anyone?
Of course, after an 800 point drop we would expect a modest bounce upward from a big down day anyway. The dollar became more valuable since US interest rates on the unwind of Monday's flight to quality. The price of oil went down due to a number of factors including an increased chance of recession here in the US and the resulting decline in predicted demand.
Bottom line is that you can't really use day-to-day swings in the fickle markets to either justify or refute a proposed policy. People on both sides of the debate have tried to do that and I think it's unjustified. At best, it's an indication of public opinion on an issue and a very volatile and fickle one at that.
It wasn't a modest jump, it reclaimed the majority of the losses. My point is that the bailout failing did not have the dire consequences predicted by the doom and gloomers
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 10/1/2008 1:29:47 PM
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GroupW
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quote:
ORIGINAL: _jjp_
GroupWIt wasn't a modest jump, it reclaimed the majority of the losses. My point is that the bailout failing did not have the dire consequences predicted by the doom and gloomers
It recovered approximately half the 800 point loss. Part of the reason for the recovery was an expectation that the Senate would pick up the bill and address some shortcomings before sending it back to the house. It could likely have fallen further on the following day in the absence of such assurance.
Again, though, I would caution against reading too much into daily market swings. To do that risks the idea that we should allow the fickleness of the daily stock market to influence policy.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 10/1/2008 1:33:17 PM
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GroupW
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quote:
ORIGINAL: _jjp_
It wasn't a modest jump, it reclaimed the majority of the losses. My point is that the bailout failing did not have the dire consequences predicted by the doom and gloomers
A second thought - if you really wanted to see where this was having an effect, you would look less at the stock markets and more at the debt markets. Credit default swaps and structured debt issuances have continued to worsen after the bill failed to pass. They have not recovered a bit.
Since this is the front line, it would be the more accurate guage of whether or not the failure of the bill is having the dire predicted consequences. There, the answer is a probable yes.
Looking at the stock market for an answer to what's happening in the debt markets is like looking out the back window to see who's knocking at your front door.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 10/1/2008 1:48:29 PM
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ayani
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GroupW:
I've been reading your posts here and wanted to thank you for your analysis.
You seem to have a knowledgeable understanding of what's really going on (and what's not going on), and explain it in a way that non-specialists can understand. I think your posts here are more informative than the vast majority of the reporting I've seen on this.
One major problem has been that the issue is so complicated, and the people who really know what's going on (folks at the treasury and on wall street) have a horse in the race. Its hard to tell how much of what people are saying is influenced by protecting their money or a future job, and what people aren't telling us . Also, the gov't is kind of in a box: it needs to communicate the gravity of the situation without causing a panic, and without issuing self-fullfilling prophesies.
< Message edited by ayani -- 10/1/2008 1:54:33 PM >
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 10/1/2008 1:59:40 PM
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GroupW
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quote:
ORIGINAL: ayani
GroupW:
I've been reading your posts here and wanted to thank you for your analysis.
You seem to have a knowledgeable understanding of what's really going on (and what's not going on), and explain it in a way that non-specialists can understand. You've done a better job than most of the jounalist's coverage I've seen.
One major problem has been that the issue is so complicated, and the people who really know what's going on (folks at the treasury and on wall street) have a horse in the race. Also, the gov't is kind of in a box: it needs to communicate the gravity of the situation without causing a panic, and without issuing self-fullfilling prophesies.
Thanks for the complement. Complements back at you on your succint restatement of the problem! Excellent!
You're absolutely right. The people in the best position to know the depth and gravity of the problem also happen to be the one's who stand the most to gain by the bailout.
That doesn't do much for anybody's ability to trust them as an independent arbiter! No wonder people aren't convinced. You can be absolutely right, but if you've proven yourself to be less than completely trustworthy, it doesn't really matter. Not unlike the boy who cried wolf. He was right, but not credible. Same thing is going on here.
The government is indeed in a box. If they don't communicate a sense of urgency, it won't get done in time to avert some of the consequences of inaction. If they do communicate a sense of urgency, they risk creating a panic and causing the exact thing they are trying to avoid!
I think they erred too far toward creating a sense of urgency. Another couple of weeks wouldn't have been too detrimental to the economy and would have given the public some assurance that they weren't being pushed into a bad solution. Instead, the government created the impression that this needs to be done yesterday or the sky will fall. That's not productive.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 10/1/2008 9:28:44 PM
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Ps103
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It passed the Senate.
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 10/2/2008 6:15:27 AM
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deliveredarling
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I have a hard time understanding why the government feels it's necessary to force a decision upon the American people.
What happened to by the people and for the people?
Come re election, some of these folks will get the message real clear!
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 10/2/2008 3:31:20 PM
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sandrocksam
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Where is this $700 billion coming from ? Loans from China, Saudia Arabia ? Whoever supplies the money owns us, controls us. The people who got us into this trouble are the same ones who are fixing it ? I see gloom ahead and I do not trust those in power. Sleep well.
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